It is becoming more likely that a key global temperature will reach in one of the next five years.
A major study says that by 2025, there is a 40% chance it happening. In any of the following five, at least one year being 1.5C hotter than the pre-determined industrial level.
That is the lower of two temperature limits set by the Paris Agreement on climate change.
The conclusion comes in a report published by World Meteorological Organization (WMO).
The analysis is based on modelling by the UK Met Office and climate researchers in 10 countries. These countries include the United States as well as China, among other countries.
In the last decade, it is estimated that the chance of anyone year reaching the 1.5C threshold was only 20%.
However, this assessment puts the risk at an increased rate of 40 per cent.
A senior Met Office scientist, Leon Hermanson, said that comparing projected temperature with 1850-1900 shows an apparent increase.
What it means is that we are approaching the 1.5C; we are not there yet we are approaching, he added.
The researchers point out that if one of the next five years is 1.5C above the pre-industrial level. Even then, it will be a temporary situation.
Natural variability will mean that the following few years may be slightly cooler. Moreover, it will take another decade or two to cross the 1.5C permanently.
What is Paris Agreement?
The Paris Agreement established the goal of keeping the increase in global average temperature to no more than 2C. Also, try not to surpass 1.5C, and that’s understood to mean over a long period rather than a year.
A landmark report by the UN in the 2018 climate panel highlighted the impacts of climate change. It showed how the effects of it are far more severe when the increase is greater than 1.5C.
At the moment, the projection suggests that the world is on course to heat up by up to 3C. Even if the recent pledges to cut the emissions of greenhouse gases are met.
The report comes in approach to the COP26 summit on climate change. The event is due to be held in November in Glasgow.
The summit aims to increase ambition among world leaders on tackling the climate crisis.
Leave a Reply